Groundhog Day indeed. Brought to you by Donald Trump
BRAmble Daily: 5 news items, 2 comments from me and 1 random musing, book or quote
5 News Items
Forget the trade war. 60 new billionaires amongst China’s 400 richest
Macron and Xi hail $15 billion trade contracts as 'strong signal of free trade'
The Macron Method: Behind the scenes foreign policy
China and US ‘agree to phased rollback’ of extra trade war tariffs
HSBC on China’s Belt & Road Initiative, Project Risks, Benefits
2 Comments
A day after China “confirmed” the parties had agreed to a Tariff rollback, Trump once again casts doubt on the whole negotiation
“We’ll see what happens,” the president said to a reporter who asked if the agreement would be concluded in 2019.
Speaking Friday in an impromptu press conference on the White House lawn, President Trump indicated that the United States and China may not complete a partial trade deal this year, yet again raising doubts about prospects for a commercial truce that as of the day before was expected to be signed within the next 10 days.
“I haven’t agreed to anything,” Trump told reporters. “China would like to get somewhat of a rollback, not a complete rollback because they know I won’t do it.”
These comments seem to conflict with those of his National Economic Council director, Larry Kudlow. who confirmed the Chinese Commerce Ministry’s claim of a tariff accord on Thursday, telling the press: “If there’s a Phase 1 trade deal, there are going to be tariff agreements and concessions.”
Macron’s week in EU leader mode
In an interview with the Economist released this week, Emmanuel Macron, the president of France, warns that Europe is “on the edge of a precipice” . He framed it in the context of the current “exceptional fragility of Europe”. And with regards to NATO, the withdrawal of support from America, the unrelenting economic and hegemonic power of China, and the increase of authoritarian leaders in the EU’s neighborhood have made it necessary to enable the EU to defend itself.
He clearly stated his concern that “we are currently experiencing...the brain death of NATO”. Per the United States mandate for EU state to get “out of arrears” in their NATO dues, collectively the EU will need to pay over 100 billion to support NATO by 2024. Macron seems to be advocating a different solution—that the EU pay to support themselves instead of sinking more money into the NATO scheme. The first reaction from other EU states is that Macron made these statements without enough EU member state consultation and therefore is not speaking on behalf of the EU.
Trump has long pointed out the issues of NATO from a a U.S. point of view, calling it “obsolete” on numerous occasions. Macron is taking it one step farther with his “NATO is brain dead” statement. Both are saying in a sense that NATO has outlived its usefulness. Macron is saying the EU needs to spend more to protect itself.
With France currently spending less than 2% of GDP on defense, these words imply a commitment to spend more, albeit in a different way than contributing to NATO. Coming off a successful week in China promoting trade, closing deals and having photo ops with Xi Jinping, Macron seems to be filling the leadership vacuum in the EU by action and a small dose of courage and vision. Comparing this trip to German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s just two months ago, many agree Macron is looking particularly adept in avoiding the controversy and getting his objectives accomplished in a way Merkel couldn’t.
1 Musing
Donald Trump as president could not exist without television and Twitter. His communication style is not robust enough for a longer format. Lets face it, Donald Trump is a living, breathing soundbite machine. And recently his communications have gone from confident blustering and positioning to rapid-fire attacks on everyone and everything that he perceives to be “against” him. This is not a partisan comment. Not even just my personal opinion. It is simply a fact.
Heeding George Washington’s example, U.S. presidents always spoke with remarks that would have the same effect whether they were written or listened to. Most recently, President Obama was always very deliberate and precise in his public commuication. Recently I have been reading many of the transcripts of Donald Trump’s public remarks. Not only for the “shock value” but also for my personal interest around how this particular president will be seen in the future through the lens of history.
While Barack Obama was the first president to use Twitter in 2010. Obama used the medium sparingly and mainly used it to get timely and nationally important messages out directly to the constituents. Fast forward to the Trump presidency. Trump averages at least Twitter messages a day, adding up to several thousand per year.
Besides technology, the most significant change in presidential communication style is the unfortunate trend of U.S. presidents during their first term always being in “campaign mode”. By always being in campaign mode encourages frequent and public disparagement of political opponents, more partisanship and less time focused on doing what is right for the entire country, opting instead to leveraging the “bully pulpit” to strengthen the power of the president’s political party. It also brings the level of the dialogue to the lowest common denominator, overly casual, unrefined and often vulgar level.
Thanks for reading,
James