China Economy is 70% of the US and Closing Fast

If you thought the pandemic was bad, U.S. post-election chaos in November will be 10x worse.

The Belt & Road Today

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A Fact

China will be the only major economy to bounce back this year. Across China, children are preparing to return to classrooms much as they did last Autumn. Restaurants, public transportation, and airports are packed. Economists at the World Bank and elsewhere have upgraded their economic forecasts for China.

According to Nicholas Lardy, an economist and China expert at the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington, China’s inflation-adjusted economic output will likely hit $11.9 trillion this year. That is roughly 70% of the U.S.’s expected output—a seven-percentage-point increase from last year—the largest advance China has made on the U.S. in a single year.

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A Musing

The only way we are going to lose this election is if the election is rigged - Donald Trump

Trump was asked repeatedly in a recent Fox News interview and refused to commit that he will accept the outcome of the published election results.

"I have to see," Trump replied, "No, I'm not going to just say yes. I'm not going to say no, and I didn't last time either."

Notwithstanding the Trump administration efforts to cripple the U.S. Post Office’s ability to process mail-in ballots, more Americans than ever are expected to cast mail-in ballots this year, so it will take longer for results to be tallied. November 3rd, which has traditionally been called "election night" will be more like "election week," because it could realistically take a week (or more) until news outlets can project a winner. Both presidential campaigns have recruited lawyers and set aside millions of dollars and for the forthcoming legal fights for the presidency.

"There's a significant scope for an unprecedented post-election crisis in this country." Larry Diamond, expert on democratic institutions at the Hoover Institution.

But besides legal fights, what happens if Americans begin protesting and fighting in the streets? The short answer—from what we have seen via urban unrest this year all over the country—is that the Trump Administration will send in troops to “keep the peace” and the presidency.

“For there to be that large of an escalation in budget for crowd-control devices and less lethal devices shows that there is an effort afoot to create a force of federal law enforcement that is geared toward public suppression. The vast majority of federal organizations are not designed or trained for crowd control.”—Wayne McElrath, former director of forensic investigations for the Government Accountability Office from 2011 to 2019

There is very little precedent in American history for a disputed presidential election. No presidential nominee has ever refused to accept defeat, not even after the bitterly disputed 1876 election, which was finally resolved just two days before the inauguration. Even after the Supreme Court ruling in Bush v. Gore, then-Vice President Al Gore conceded the 2000 election and stepped away from public view.

Just imagine if this election was debated in the streets and in the media in the US for nearly 3 months from election day November 3rd until inauguration day on January 20, 2021 and beyond. You can bet the Trump administration will deploy all federal forces in their employ to keep Trump in office. The very foundation of American democracy will be tested. I have no doubt the worst is ahead of us in 2020.

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A Book

If you are reading this and you are not Chinese, your version of the history of the world is much different than your Chinese counterparts. For the Chinese, the Greeks, Romans, and Napoleon might well have been people that existed on a completely different planet. From a Chinese point of view, for as far back as anyone can remember, China had the richest economy, the strongest military, and the most advanced philosophy, culture, and technology in the world.

Superpower Interrupted by Michael Shuman is a very accessible and entertaining history book for all those who want a peek at the Chinese worldview and belief system. Since the 19th century collision with the West knocked China's historical trajectory off course for the first time, the Chinese fixated on returning their country to its former greatness, restoring the Chinese version of its place in the world as they had always known it. For the Chinese, the question was never if they could reclaim their former dominant position in the world, but when. This book helps the reader understand the foundation for the “miraculous” economic and cultural rise from that ashes that the world has seen from China.

In February 1979, Deng Xiaoping found himself in an unlikely setting for a career Communist—a Texas rodeo. The longtime revolutionary luminary would probably have been much more comfortable marching with peasant soldiers or maneuvering in Beijing’s cloistered halls of power. But unlike most other party brass, the personable and open-minded Deng knew how to play to the crowd, whoever might be in it. Donning a ten-gallon cowboy hat, Deng earned himself a hearty whoop from these otherwise red-blooded, anti-Red spectators. “Deng Xiaoping not only went west, but went Western,” one television reporter quipped approvingly. - Schuman, Michael. Superpower Interrupted (p. 295). PublicAffairs. Kindle Edition.

Superpower Interrupted: The Chinese History of the World by [Michael Schuman]

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