A more confident China trade stance and a new Trump competitor in 2020
BRAmble Daily: 5 news items, 2 comments from me and 1 random musing, book or quote
5 News Items
In latest China pivot, Trump says partial trade deal might not happen
Beijing's Belt and Road prompts skepticism in China's northeast
US woos Asia with plan to rival China's 'Belt and Road’
Iraq May Be Central to China’s Economic Aspirations in Middle East
How China and Russia are becoming BFFs, following Trump’s US policy
2 Comments
The tables are turning in the trade negotiations between the U.S. and China
With regard to the trade negotiations, China has seemed quite self-assured stance in recent weeks. The People's Daily published a piece at the beginning of the month, declaring that resolving tariffs is the prerequisite for a trade agreement.
China has now made it extraordinarily clear through, such published pieces as well as through the comments of China Ministry of Commerce spokesman Gao Feng and even hints from Xi Jinping that China expects the complete withdrawal of U.S. tariffs.
How far the U.S. will give in remains the looming question. From news reports and Trump administration official’s statements, it is clear they are considering a partial reversal of the 15% tariff applied to $112 billion worth of Chinese imports on Sept. 1. There is also a chance China could get a reprieve from levies on $156 billion on consumer products, like smartphones, that would go into effect in December.
To prevent it from appearing that China is getting an easy win, the U.S. has sought a provision that would reimpose tariffs if China is found to have neglected negotiated commitments. Beijing has so far rejected this approach as it is to “subjective” in its enforcement and not reciprocal in nature.
One of the biggest points of negotiation now is location, location, location. Trump apparently prefers to hold the signing ceremony in the U.S. and suggested the electoral battleground state of Iowa. This location would help him drum up support from his base among farmers, especially important given the ongoing impeachment hearings.
But the risks for Chinese President Xi Jinping are hight if he travels to U.S. soil, especially since Trump is infamous for his eleventh-hour hijinx when negotiating. The prospect of being sent home empty-handed from a meeting site on Trump's home turf would cause Xi Jinping to massively lose face and would no doubt push the entire U.S.-China relationship over the edge and into massive disarray.
The stakes are incredibly high, and yet China seems more confident than it has been so far throughout the entire trade war.
Bloomberg is in the race and now Trump has his work cut out for him in 2020
They are both New Yorkers by residence, both billionaire businessmen, both outspoken and direct. Still, there is one key difference: Bloomberg has a strong history of impactful public service and is viewed by most as infinitely more trustworthy than Trump.
On Friday, when the rumors of Bloomberg's candidacy made headlines, Trump derisively told reporters: "There is nobody I'd rather run against than little Michael." Later that day, Bloomberg filed paperwork for the Democratic presidential primary in Alabama.
In regards to the inevitable, "why now?" questions, Bloomberg's adviser Howard Wolfson said: "We now need to finish the job and ensure that Trump is defeated." Though Bloomberg is late to the race and that could hamper his efforts in the early states like Iowa and New Hampshire, Mr. Wolfson went on to say, "Mike is increasingly concerned that the current field of candidates is not well-positioned to do that."
Mr. Bloomberg is said to be fully aware such a belated entry to the race presents challenges in states like Iowa and New Hampshire, where other Democratic contenders have been campaigning for months.
1 Quote
“We set no special value on the possession of a virtue until we percieve that it is entirely lacking in our adversary.”
― Friedrich Nietzsche, Human, All Too Human: A Book for Free Spirits
Thanks for reading,
James